Value recovered todayIDR 0

eliteAI / Evidence / Backtest

October 2025 to September 2026Sorong Warehouse, September 2026

If eliteAI had been running last year

Available in a proof of concept. Two years of movement history is enough.
Connected toSAPsyncingCMMSsyncingDemonstration connection. No live link to Petrogas systems.

Stock value held, actual against modelled

Click a month to see what was suggested, what was done and what it cost.

Actually held Model would have held Gap
IDR 38.70bnIDR 40.62bnIDR 42.54bnIDR 44.46bnIDR 46.39bnOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

The scorecard

3
Happened
2
Warned in advance

Stockouts in the last twelve months, and how many the model would have warned about in advance

IDR 43.74bn
Actual
IDR 41.11bn
Modelled

Average stock value held across the year, actual against modelled

7
Placed
6
Caught

Duplicate orders placed, and how many free text matching would have caught

IDR 1.88bn
Paid
IDR 1.60bn
Flagged

Invoice overcharges paid, and how much rate card checking would have flagged

Where the model was wrong

Three cases from this data where following the suggestion would have been worse.

BRG-SKF-22324-CCK, main export pump bearing

The model said
Cut the line. Twenty four months without a movement and a unit value high enough to dominate the surplus ranking.
The team did
Held two units. The rotating equipment engineer classified it as insurance against a single point of failure.

The pump has no installed spare. A failure stops export for eleven weeks, and no movement history can show that.

CHEM-DEMUL-D2200, demulsifier

The model said
Lower the maximum. Consumption fell for four straight months, so the model read it as declining demand.
The team did
Held the maximum. Production knew the Walio tie in would raise water cut from the third quarter.

The drop was a well being shut in for workover, not a trend. The forward plan was never in the movement data.

INV-2026-02233, Nusantara Bahari Logistik

The model said
Flag the mobilisation line as above rate and send the invoice back to the supplier.
The team did
Accepted and paid. The rate was varied in a signed side letter that sits outside the rate card.

The variation was agreed in writing during the cyclone standby and never loaded into the contract record.